The SHARE International Seminar Series (SISS) presents:

Temporal Dynamics & Predictor Hierarchies of Mental Health Outcomes in SHARE

Abstract

Depression, anxiety, and cognitive impairment are common and frequently co-occurring in later life, yet their temporal dynamics and relative standing within broader risk constellations remain unresolved. In this seminar, we examine cognition and affect using large-scale data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), integrating age-based dynamic structural modeling with high-dimensional machine learning approaches.

We first test whether reduced cognitive performance at a given age predicts subsequent depressive escalation—or vice versa—across the adult aging span (approximately ages 50 to 90+). We then turn to comparative risk modeling. Through random forests and confirmatory regression analyses, we rank more than 50 socio-demographic, health, functional, cognitive, and relational predictors of depression and anxiety. Particular attention is given to detailed social network measures available in SHARE. This approach highlights which factors dominate near-term risk discrimination and how patterns converge or diverge across outcomes and sex.

Together, these findings distinguish longitudinal, time-dependent vulnerabilities from proximal risk and situate age-related mental health outcomes within a broader ecology of demographic, relational and health-based influences.

Biography

Stephen R. Aichele, Ph.D. is a research professor in the Department of Human Development and Family Studies at Colorado State University, with a joint appointment in Epidemiology at the Colorado School of Public Health.

His research leverages advanced statistical and computational methods to examine how age-related changes in cognition influence health and well-being across the lifespan. His work includes early applications of machine learning to identify cognitive and behavioral predictors of dementia, depression, and mortality in diverse older adult populations. He maintains active international collaborations in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

Aichele received his Ph.D. in quantitative psychology from the University of California, and he serves on the editorial boards of The Journals of Gerontology: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences and Psychology and Aging.